1	The Perfect Storm - Electronic Publishing and the Internet Stephen Heller NIST Gaithersburg, MD steve@hellers.com
2	Disclaimer The opinions presented on these slides are those of the slides and not necessarily those of the speaker. No animals were harmed in the preparation of this talk; however a few WWW sites were hit. This talk conforms to PETA & NIH treatment of human subjects guidelines. These slides were made from 100% recycled electrons. There are no George W. Bush jokes in this presentation. This will be a well balanced presentation. I have a chip on both shoulders.
3	Disclaimer I don’t make Open Access jokes. I just report the facts. with apologies to Will Rogers
4	The slides from this talk can be found at: http://www.hellers.com/steve/pub-talks/sandiego305/sld001.htm
5	Goals for this talk: Offend all interested parties Stimulate honest discussion of real issues (not red herrings) PS. Yes, I am wearing a bullet proof vest.
6	Outline of Today’s talk Introduction/Background Open Access Examples of Three Open Access Journals/Policies Publishing – Why/Problem OA Players Open Source Chemical Structures – InChI Peer Review Archiving Economics What the Players are doing Summary
7	Requirement: To communicate and provide a permanent record of scientific research. Solution: Has varied over time.
8	Scribes in the 15th century were not happy with Johann Gutenberg. Publishers in the 21st century are not happy with Tim Berners-Lee
9	In the early 1990s, Sebastian Junger wrote a book called The Perfect Storm which described a weather event that had never occurred before in recorded history. A combination of rain, wind, cold air from Canada and warm air from the Atlantic Ocean created this event, stemming from two very dissimilar air masses. In his book, The Innovators Dilemma, Clayton Christensen describes what happens when disruptive changes in technology create the environment for a break-though or change that could never happen on its own. Open Access is the result of Internet and the financial environment (the so-called “serials-crises”) in scholarly community libraries which have created another "perfect storm".
10	Organizations that fail to recognize and confront technological and market changes often tend to lose their positions, if not their organizations. History is replete with such examples. In the 18th century the power looms replaced the handloom weavers, In the early 20th century the horse and buggy industry giving way to automobiles. In the late 20th century the airplane replaced the train and boat for long distance traveling. Now, at the start of the 21st century the technology of the Internet is threatening the way in which the 3+ century old scientific publishing industry and libraries which subscribe to scholarly publications have done business for many decades.
11	The only thing new in the world is the history you don't know. Harry Truman
12	X-rays will prove to be a hoax Lord Kelvin, 1883 Radio has no future Lord Kelvin, 1897 Fooling around with alternating current is a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever. Thomas Edison , circa 1900 Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. Prof. Irving Fisher (Yale), 10/17/1929 I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
13	We don’t like their sound. Groups of Guitars are on their way out. Decca Records executive, 1962 There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. Ken Olson President Digital Equipment Corp. 1977 640K ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, 1981 Open Access is evil Commercial & Society Publishers, 2005
14	I want to assure you that I have never felt better about the prospects for the company. Enron CEO Ken Lay, after selling $160 million of his own company stock (August 14, 2001) Companies come and go. It's part of the genius of capitalism. Paul O'Neill, Treasury secretary, on the collapse of Enron (January 14, 2002)
15	The Origin of Open Access Harnad's post consisted of a simple but radical proposition: Since researchers' only interest in publishing is to share their ideas with as many of their peers as possible and they are, therefore, happy to give their papers away the price tag of journal subscriptions not only imposes an undesirable restriction on that sharing but, in the age of the Internet, is no longer even necessary. Consequently, he concluded, researchers should immediately start self-archiving their papers on the Internet, thereby maximizing the impact of their ideas and more effectively reaching "the eyes and minds of peers, fellow esoteric scientists and scholars the world over.“ Richard Poynder http://www.infotoday.com/it/oct04/poynder.shtml
16	The BBB definition of "open access" Budapest Open Access Initiative (February 14, 2002) http://www.soros.org/openaccess/ Bethesda Statement on Open Access Publishing (June 20, 2003) http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/bethesda.htm Berlin Declaration on Open Access to Knowledge in the Sciences and Humanities, (October 22, 2003) http://www.zim.mpg.de/openaccess-berlin/berlindeclaration.html
17	Open Access An Open Access Publication is one that meets the following two conditions: The author(s) and copyright holder(s) grant(s) to all users a free, irrevocable, worldwide, perpetual right of access to, and a license to copy, use, distribute, transmit and display the work publicly and to make and distribute derivative works, in any digital medium for any responsible purpose, subject to proper attribution of authorship, as well as the right to make small numbers of printed copies for their personal use. A complete version of the work and all supplemental materials, including a copy of the permission as stated above, in a suitable standard electronic format is deposited immediately upon initial publication in at least one online repository that is supported by an academic institution, scholarly society, government agency, or other well-established organization that seeks to enable open access, unrestricted distribution, interoperability, and long-term archiving (for the biomedical sciences, PubMed Central is such a repository). From PLOS web site
18	Internet Sources of Open Access Information Peter Suber - SPARC http://www.arl.org/sparc/soa/index.html Harnad list http://www.cogsci.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Hypermail/Amsci/index.html
19	Three Examples of OA Journals and OA Policies
20	Nucleic Acids Research Impact Factor -- 6.575 Overview of NAR’s Open Access model for 2005 From 1st January 2005, all articles published in NAR will be made freely available online immediately upon publication. This means that it will no longer be necessary to hold a subscription in order to read NAR online – content published in the journal will be easily accessible to everyone. Our decision to implement an Open Access model for 2005 is based in part on a large-scale survey of NAR authors and reviewers. Between March and April 2004, over 1000 members of the journal’s community responded to our survey, with the majority supporting a move to full Open Access partially funded by author publication charges. We have also discussed possible models with representatives of the librarian community, who have expressed support for our experimentation with Open Access. http://www3.oup.co.uk/nar/special/14/default.html
21	New ACS Policy – Open Access will come as soon as:
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25	Basic Goal or Reason for Publishing: Communicate to others what you have found Real (Secondary) Goal: Improve your position in life (money, recognition, promotion, etc.)
26	Most scientific manuscripts are write only- so while you get what you need, you still pay for everything
27	..publishers have grown fat by charging libraries hundreds or thousands of dollars a year for subscriptions to printed artifacts that might not contain information of real importance. Harry Collier, Digital Publishing Strategies, 11/97, page 16
28	System Requirements The scholarly community needs organizations to accept, review, disseminate, and archive manuscripts Only institutions have infinite lifetimes, humans don’t (i.e., self archiving is nice, but too finite for civilization to benefit)
29	System Problems Costs are high No cost for manuscript submission. Under ANY economic model the high volume of submissions generated by the submission via the Internet will drown any system. Lack of leadership at research institutions to demand changes from researchers publication behavior. Difficulty to institute change
30	There must be a God – no human could have ever created such a dysfunctional system.
31	OA Players Researchers Publishers Libraries Stevan Harnad
32	Stevan Harnad Publishers
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34	Open Access for Chemical Structures The IUPAC Chemical Identifier Project – InChI- An Open Access/Open Source project of IUPAC
35	Digital ‘Naming’ of Chemicals Chemical structure is the true ‘identifier’ But, structure representations are not unique or convenient for computers. So, convert structure to a unique ‘name’ by fixed algorithms The IUPAC International Chemical Identifier (InChI)
36	Two Problems Chemicals Fast isomerization (tautomerization) Ill-defined connectivity Chemists Differing conventions Depends on discipline, education and convenience Imprecision/uncertainty
37	3 Steps to InChI Chemistry ‘Normalize’ Input Structure Implement chemical rules Math ‘Canonicalize’ (label the atoms) Equivalent atoms get the same label Format ‘Serialize’ Labeled Structure Output as character string (‘name’)
38	Normalize Simplify Divide structure into ‘layers’ Each layer ‘refines’ structure Ignore ‘Electron Density’ Use simple ‘connectivity’ only Ignore bond type and electron location Stereochemistry sp² and sp³ only Free rotation around single bonds No Z/E stereo for small rings (default)
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40	InChI Capabilities Identify compounds at the known level of detail Convention-free (mostly) Generate quickly from structure Contains all essential connectivity information Simple ASCII representation
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43	OA Issues Peer Review Archiving Economics
44	Peer Review The worst of system, except for all the others. With apologies to Winston Churchill
45	Peer Review The third rail of science.
46	Peer Review: Quantity has a quality all of its own Joseph Stalin or Peer review is nice, but Reproducibility is what counts in science. Peer review has nothing to do with OA.
47	Peer Review Peer Review is about to collapse under the weight of too many short (LPU’s - least publishable unit) papers, too many poor science papers, and too many poorly written manuscripts – all of which are too easily submitted via the Internet. .
48	Peer Review Problems – Poor Manuscripts For example: “Two member-ed unsaturated rings” Part 1- Synthesis Part 2 – Nitrogen derivatives Part 3- Sulfur derivatives Authors: G. Marx, H. Marx, & Z. Marx, Freedonia Academy of Sciences
49	The solution -- independent of subscription/OA model -- is to charge for submission of manuscripts, and charge a second fee if accepted under the OA model
50	Archiving Examples Vatican Library – 4^th century Bibliotheque Nationale de France -1367 National Library of Sweden – 1568 Harvard University - 1638 German State Library in Berlin -1661 National Library of Spain -1711 British Library – 1753 US Library of Congress – 1800 ACS Electronic Journals – 1996
51	There is no need to worry about archiving journals and data, the US Office of Homeland Security will do it for you.
52	Economics
53	Open and Access and Publishers – Why do they think evolution does not apply to them?
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55	Nowhere in the Constitution is there a guaranteed right for a company to remain in business. Great Companies can die:
56	Nowhere in the Constitution is there a guaranteed right for publishers to have 40% profit margins or even remain in business. History of abstracting services: Chemisches Zentralblatt:1856 –1969 British Abstracts: 1849 – 1953 Chemical Abstracts: 1907 - ?? Google 2004 - ??? The Evolution of the Secondary Literature in Chemistry - Helen Schofield
57	Example of the Effect of the Internet on a Business Before the Internet, NY Stock Exchange specialists basically had a license to print money, using the spreads in stocks they traded on the exchange to make an obscene living - and everyone was required to use them. Now with computers and the Internet and electronic exchanges, the same function is carried out differently, and specialists are becoming a dying (and much poorer) breed.
58	Open Access will: Provide global, universal free access to information Resolve the serial & budget crises at libraries Accelerate scientific progress and research Enhance research productivity Improve Quality Assurance Grow hair on bald spots - ?
59	What about funding?
60	Economics Scholarly journals -The only item in the USA whose cost is rising faster than health care. Ann Wolpert, MIT
61	Economics “OA is untested economic model” Is this why publishers who are collecting all the money happy with the current system?
62	Economics The financial models from the publishers have changed due to the Internet. They have replaced purchases and copyright and fair-use with leases, and contracts.
63	Economics If I had a one dollar for every Stevan Hanard e-mail about OA, I could fund OA. (~4400 messages as of2/98 – 3/05)
64	Economics Cost of publishing an OA article is US $100 - $15,000 (All financial numbers have been audited and approved by Arthur Anderson, Inc.)
65	Economics Publishing Costs – Subscription model: Editorial Staff Sales Marketing Legal – Contracts, Copyright IT/Computer Systems
66	Economics Derk Haank – Info. World Rev., December 2004, page 18 “The people calling for “free access for all” should realise that the relevant audience already has free access – through the libraries and research institutions. I am sure that today everyone can access the results they need for their work. … The new Springer Open Choice model, in which case they pay a fee of $3,000 (1,620 UK pounds). In return the paper is freely accessible to anyone interested via the online service SpringerLink and can read and downloaded free of charge.” (Are the latter, who pay $3,000, the “irrelevant audience”?)
67	Librarians Activities – Past Decade Whine about increasing prices Reduce journal and book purchases Attempted to educate researchers about pricing issues Provided journals in electronic form to researchers’ desktop Provided electronic document delivery
68	Publishers Activities – Past Decade Keep the cash flowing in: Raise prices Replace copyright with contracts/licenses Object to any changes (e.g., Open Access) Suggest various doomsday scenarios to any change from the outside Provide content in electronic form Provide archives in electronic form
69	Researchers Activities – Past Decade Business as usual – publish wherever they want No change in where or how (e.g., use features of electronic media to enhance manuscript) they publish
70	Economics What are the library infrastructure costs ? Purchasing, licensing agreements (staff size including lawyers), inventory, budgeting for journal/book reductions, document delivery, interlibrary loans, etc. What costs disappear with OA?
71	The basic question that really needs to be answered: How much money do you REALLY need to run the scholarly publishing system – and how do you raise this money? Where can unnecessary costs be squeezed out of the system by all parties?
72	Researchers need to stop publishing partial results on an hourly/ daily/weekly basis. Journals need to charge authors for frivolous submissions. Peer review is not free now and never will be.
73	PLoS was a great cause and it attracted nearly 34,000 signatures from scientists in 180 countries. But, while a small handful of publishers complied, most blithely ignored the PLoS letter. Worse, most of the scientist signatories were happy to forswear their own petition and continued publishing in the very journals that had turned a deaf ear to their request. Richard Poynder http://www.infotoday.com/it/oct04/poynder.shtml Of the 34,000 signatories about 34 have actually published in an OA journal. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him/her drink
74	The real evil ones: The self-centered, egotistical, and pampered researchers.
75	Solution? In principle, the researchers control the entire process and could change it to the benefit of their organizations. If you believe this will happen soon, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you real cheap.
76	Solution - Prediction Provosts at universities and college will mandate researchers put up their publications either on their institution web site or one or more public sites – libraries, universities, etc.
77	The future belongs to the Publishers – unless, of course, the researchers and librarians stop them first. With apologies to Homer Simpson
78	It is better to be the reorganizer than the reorganizee Augustine's Law XX Norm Augustine, former CEO Lockheed Martin
79	Winners and Losers if OA prevails Winners: Industry Libraries – they pay much less Researchers – they have access to everything at no additional cost Public - they have access to everything at no cost Libraries (they become relevant again) Losers: Most publishers
80	Don’t give up – Moses was once a basket case
81	I didn't really say everything I said Yogi Berra
82	The Future (1) Between researchers putting their results on the web and Google/Yahoo/Microsoft developing ways to search text and chemical structures all non-copyright, non-proprietary information will be readily available. Who knows, Google might even buy all of Elsevier’s back-file content one day.
83	The Future (2) In the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, the Earth was vaporized to make way for a new inter-galatic highway which was needed. Destroying earth, was, to quote Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, “collateral damage”. Perhaps we will be saying that of publishers one day soon as well.
84	Summary There is a problem with too many manuscripts and how to publish them (peer review) and how to make them available. OA may be smoke and mirrors, but where there is smoke there usually is fire. And someone will put out the fire. I am betting on Goggle or some version of it to do so.
85	Acknowledgements I really think my friends would prefer if I left their names off this slide.
86	Acknowledgements Steve Bachrach, Mila Becker, Pieter Bolman, Bob Bovenschulte, Steve Bryant, Alice Cooper, Rene Deplanque, Guenter Grethe, Stevan Hanard, Sami Kassab, Gary Mallard, Randy Marcinko, Alan McNaught, Bill Milne, Carmen Nitsche, Chris Reed, Rich Roberts, Peter Murray-Rust, Henry Rzepa, Steve Stein, Peter Shepherd, Bill Town, Andrea Twiss-Brooks, Ann Wolpert